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考虑公众参与的公共工程项目突发事件应急管理探讨

日期:2021年08月18日 编辑:ad201107111759308692 作(zuo)者:s11竞猜平台 点击次数:54
论文价(jia)格(ge):150元/篇 论文编号:lw202108092040422409 论(lun)文字数(shu):38859 所(suo)属(shu)栏目:工(gong)程(cheng)管理论文
论(lun)文(wen)地区:中(zhong)国 论(lun)文语(yu)种:中(zhong)文 论文用途(tu):硕士毕业论文 Master Thesis
相关标(biao)签:工程管理论文

本(ben)文(wen)是一篇工程(cheng)(cheng)管(guan)理论文(wen),本(ben)研究(jiu)借(jie)助演(yan)化博弈(yi)理论和(he) Matlab 软件数(shu)值(zhi)模拟(ni),分析(xi)在(zai)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工程(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)应(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理中主要利益(yi)主体中央政(zheng)府(fu)、地(di)方政(zheng)府(fu)和(he)公(gong)(gong)众(zhong)(zhong)的行(xing)(xing)为意(yi)愿和(he)系统的主要影响因素。主要内容包括:首先,梳理归纳相(xiang)(xiang)关公(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工程(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)、应(ying)急(ji)管(guan)理、公(gong)(gong)众(zhong)(zhong)参与、演(yan)化博弈(yi)等相(xiang)(xiang)关理概述与理论;其(qi)次构(gou)建三方博弈(yi)模型(xing),对(dui)模型(xing)进行(xing)(xing)稳(wen)定性分析(xi)来探求各利益(yi)主体的行(xing)(xing)为策略;最(zui)后对(dui)主体演(yan)化路(lu)径以及相(xiang)(xiang)关参数(shu)进行(xing)(xing)仿(fang)真(zhen)分析(xi),探究(jiu)其(qi)对(dui)系统演(yan)化路(lu)径和(he)速度(du)的影响。


第一章 绪论


1.1 研究背(bei)景与意义

1.1.1 研究背景

(1)公共工程(cheng)突发事(shi)件聚(ju)焦(jiao)社会关注

当下随着(zhe)社(she)会(hui)经(jing)济(ji)进入快(kuai)速(su)发(fa)展的(de)(de)阶段,我(wo)国(guo)工(gong)(gong)程建(jian)(jian)设行业(ye)的(de)(de)发(fa)展步伐也随之加快(kuai)。而公共工(gong)(gong)程项(xiang)目(mu)建(jian)(jian)设作为(wei)政(zheng)府拉动经(jing)济(ji)发(fa)展的(de)(de)一架马车,也为(wei)近(jin)十几年来中国(guo)经(jing)济(ji)社(she)会(hui)的(de)(de)蓬(peng)勃发(fa)展做(zuo)出(chu)突出(chu)的(de)(de)贡献。正如这(zhei)些年来我(wo)国(guo)各级政(zheng)府对公共工(gong)(gong)程项(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)投资(zi)力度逐年增(zeng)大、投资(zi)金额也呈猛烈上升趋势,由此也建(jian)(jian)成了大批享有(you)世(shi)界级影响的(de)(de)大型公共工(gong)(gong)程项(xiang)目(mu),如三峡大坝(ba)、京沪(hu)高铁、港珠澳大桥(qiao)等。然而,由于(yu)公共工(gong)(gong)程项(xiang)目(mu)自身所具(ju)有(you)的(de)(de)显著的(de)(de)规模性、复杂(za)性和(he)风险性等特点,且涉(she)及因素众多,这(zhei)就使得(de)它为(wei)整个工(gong)(gong)程建(jian)(jian)设领域和(he)社(she)会(hui)发(fa)展都(dou)带来较大机(ji)遇的(de)(de)同(tong)时也带来了极大风险。

当前(qian),我国公共(gong)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)项目取得瞩目发(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同时也突(tu)(tu)显(xian)众(zhong)多问题,如资金挪用、贪污腐败、责任(ren)不(bu)(bu)实及(ji)监督不(bu)(bu)力等引(yin)起的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)“政绩工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)”、“三(san)超工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)”、“豆腐渣(zha)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)”问题[1],从而导(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)了公共(gong)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)项目突(tu)(tu)发(fa)性事(shi)件(jian)频频发(fa)生(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)严(yan)(yan)重现(xian)象。例(li)如 2020 年 11 月天(tian)津一(yi)跨河铁路(lu)桥在维修时坍(tan)(tan)(tan)塌(ta),事(shi)故(gu)(gu)造(zao)成八人(ren)(ren)(ren)遇难(nan),四人(ren)(ren)(ren)受伤(shang),造(zao)成严(yan)(yan)重影响;2010年 1 月云(yun)南昆明市的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)机场的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)个航站(zhan)区在施工(gong)(gong)期(qi)间出(chu)现(xian)严(yan)(yan)重的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)坍(tan)(tan)(tan)塌(ta),导(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)四十一(yi)人(ren)(ren)(ren)伤(shang)亡,并(bing)产生(sheng) 616.75  万(wan)元的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)经济(ji)损(sun)失[2];2011 年 7 月位于福建的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)武夷山公馆大(da)桥路(lu)段突(tu)(tu)然坍(tan)(tan)(tan)塌(ta)导(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)一(yi)辆载客大(da)巴坠入,造(zao)成一(yi)人(ren)(ren)(ren)遇难(nan)二(er)十二(er)人(ren)(ren)(ren)受伤(shang);2019 年无锡 312 国道上海方(fang)向锡港路(lu)高架桥路(lu)段突(tu)(tu)发(fa)坍(tan)(tan)(tan)塌(ta),造(zao)成三(san)人(ren)(ren)(ren)遇难(nan)两(liang)人(ren)(ren)(ren)受伤(shang)。诸如此类的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)突(tu)(tu)发(fa)性公共(gong)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)已经频繁发(fa)生(sheng),其(qi)导(dao)致(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)社会(hui)经济(ji)损(sun)失以及(ji)群众(zhong)伤(shang)亡给国家(jia)与人(ren)(ren)(ren)民带来了巨大(da)挑战(zhan),广泛引(yin)起了国家(jia)和全社会(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)关注。现(xian)阶段各(ge)地政府(fu)纷(fen)纷(fen)出(chu)台相关应急政策和应急措(cuo)施,以有效应对突(tu)(tu)发(fa)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)类公共(gong)工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)项目事(shi)件(jian)。

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1.2 国内外研究现(xian)状

1.2.1 国(guo)外研究现状(zhuang)

关于国外在公众参与(yu)应急管理(li)的研究本文主要(yao)从两个方面来阐述,首(shou)先是关于应急管理(li)相关理(li)论研究以(yi)及应急管理(li)的应用研究。

(1)应急管理理论

应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理作为(wei)一门(men)专业的(de)(de)管(guan)(guan)理科学,主要(yao)是(shi)指为(wei)了(le)(le)抵御或应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)各类(lei)非常规、突(tu)发(fa)(fa)性的(de)(de)危(wei)机(ji)事(shi)件,预先建立起的(de)(de)有关(guan)(guan)(guan)防(fang)范、响(xiang)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)和处(chu)理体(ti)(ti)系以(yi)(yi)及相(xiang)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)措(cuo)施,以(yi)(yi)此(ci)来尽可能的(de)(de)将(jiang)(jiang)损害降至最低。国(guo)外针(zhen)对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)突(tu)发(fa)(fa)性事(shi)件应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理方(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)开始的(de)(de)比较早(zao),在(zai)1960 年就展(zhan)开了(le)(le)关(guan)(guan)(guan)于(yu)(yu)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理理论的(de)(de)大量研(yan)究(jiu),并且在(zai)“9·11”事(shi)件以(yi)(yi)后又成(cheng)了(le)(le)众多研(yan)究(jiu)学者(zhe)关(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)的(de)(de)焦点(dian),此(ci)后在(zai)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理方(fang)面(mian)的(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)也(ye)实(shi)现了(le)(le)进一步(bu)的(de)(de)飞跃。众多学者(zhe)对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)突(tu)发(fa)(fa)事(shi)件应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)(de)内涵、任务和方(fang)法(fa)(fa)、体(ti)(ti)制、程序、决(jue)(jue)(jue)策等(deng)内容(rong)展(zhan)开深入研(yan)究(jiu)。Barton 强调“危(wei)机(ji)是(shi)一个(ge)潜(qian)在(zai)的(de)(de)、不(bu)确定(ding)性的(de)(de)危(wei)害事(shi)件,所以(yi)(yi)在(zai)危(wei)机(ji)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)和处(chu)理过(guo)(guo)(guo)程中需(xu)要(yao)以(yi)(yi)预防(fang)为(wei)主,注(zhu)重人本原(yuan)理,关(guan)(guan)(guan)心与爱护受伤(shang)群体(ti)(ti)”[6]。Daniel J. Balnett 等(deng)  (2005)结合“9·11”事(shi)件中美国(guo)的(de)(de)做法(fa)(fa),提(ti)出(chu)重视应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)能力对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)决(jue)(jue)(jue)策的(de)(de)重大意义(yi),强调公民应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)教(jiao)育、演(yan)练以(yi)(yi)及媒(mei)体(ti)(ti)公共(gong)媒(mei)介等(deng)重要(yao)性[7]。Daniel  Weisdorf(2007)从(cong)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理体(ti)(ti)系建设角(jiao)度出(chu)发(fa)(fa),强调其应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)当(dang)是(shi)动态管(guan)(guan)理的(de)(de)一个(ge)过(guo)(guo)(guo)程,并且建议(yi)对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)能力定(ding)期进行有关(guan)(guan)(guan)评价,同(tong)时要(yao)对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)评价指标不(bu)断修正,以(yi)(yi)此(ci)来对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理水平(ping)进行改善[8]。Daniel Henstra(2010)则(ze)(ze)立足(zu)于(yu)(yu)政府对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)危(wei)机(ji)事(shi)件应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理的(de)(de)质量,认为(wei)其主要(yao)取(qu)决(jue)(jue)(jue)于(yu)(yu)四(si)个(ge)过(guo)(guo)(guo)程,即应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)准备、应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)缓解、应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)响(xiang)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)以(yi)(yi)及应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)恢复,提(ti)出(chu)了(le)(le)有关(guan)(guan)(guan)评价政府实(shi)际(ji)危(wei)机(ji)状况(kuang)中应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理质量的(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)(fa)[9]。B.D. Phillips(2016)对(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)将(jiang)(jiang)应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理从(cong)宏观(guan)(guan)和微观(guan)(guan)两个(ge)层面(mian)进行研(yan)究(jiu),宏观(guan)(guan)层次的(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)由应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理体(ti)(ti)制机(ji)制、应(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)(ying)急(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理体(ti)(ti)系等(deng)组成(cheng),而微观(guan)(guan)层次则(ze)(ze)侧重于(yu)(yu)从(cong)技术方(fang)面(mian)来解决(jue)(jue)(jue)宏观(guan)(guan)层次的(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)中所发(fa)(fa)现的(de)(de)问题[10]。

在(zai)(zai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)众参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)方面(mian),传统的(de)(de)(de)注(zhu)重(zhong)(zhong)直接(jie)救灾的(de)(de)(de)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)思想(xiang)已经逐渐被摒弃,而当今国际前沿的(de)(de)(de)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)理(li)念则(ze)倾向于(yu)全(quan)方位的(de)(de)(de)控制(zhi),并且(qie)越(yue)来(lai)越(yue)注(zhu)重(zhong)(zhong)多方参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)。其中(zhong)公(gong)(gong)(gong)众参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)受到广泛重(zhong)(zhong)视,并且(qie)开(kai)始进入(ru)学者(zhe)们的(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究(jiu)视野内,目前国外纷纷对公(gong)(gong)(gong)众参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)的(de)(de)(de)行(xing)为(wei)(wei)、形式和(he)作(zuo)用等(deng)展开(kai)研(yan)究(jiu)。Terry  F 等(deng)(2007)针(zhen)对高校(xiao)校(xiao)内的(de)(de)(de)突发(fa)性(xing)事故进行(xing)研(yan)究(jiu),深入(ru)探讨在(zai)(zai)此类(lei)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)活(huo)动中(zhong)怎样(yang)发(fa)挥志愿(yuan)者(zhe)的(de)(de)(de)作(zuo)用[11]。Shari.R Veil(2010)等(deng)人(ren)从公(gong)(gong)(gong)众参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)角度(du)出(chu)发(fa),提出(chu)在(zai)(zai)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)中(zhong)需要加强政府相(xiang)关应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)部门与(yu)(yu)(yu)社(she)会公(gong)(gong)(gong)众之间的(de)(de)(de)沟通与(yu)(yu)(yu)交流,如(ru)风险沟通、信息沟通等(deng),从而有(you)(you)效提高公(gong)(gong)(gong)众在(zai)(zai)突发(fa)性(xing)事件中(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)热情和(he)参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)积极性(xing)[12]。Chandrasekhar 等(deng)人(ren)(2014)则(ze)了解到在(zai)(zai)自然(ran)灾害(hai)中(zhong)可(ke)以通过(guo)一(yi)些不寻常(chang)的(de)(de)(de)方法使公(gong)(gong)(gong)众参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)到灾后重(zhong)(zhong)建工作(zuo)中(zhong)以此来(lai)平衡应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)救援(yuan)中(zhong)各项权(quan)力,同时也可(ke)以为(wei)(wei)社(she)会公(gong)(gong)(gong)众带来(lai)更(geng)多参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)机(ji)会[13]。Subhajyoti Samaddar(2015)等(deng)人(ren)就(jiu)一(yi)些学者(zhe)们对于(yu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)众参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)应急(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)管(guan)(guan)理(li)活(huo)动中(zhong)而秉持质(zhi)疑态(tai)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)情况,进行(xing)了相(xiang)关个案的(de)(de)(de)深入(ru)研(yan)究(jiu)。开(kai)创性(xing)地依据公(gong)(gong)(gong)众群体独有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)特性(xing)制(zhi)定了有(you)(you)序的(de)(de)(de)参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)程序,并且(qie)评判公(gong)(gong)(gong)众参(can)与(yu)(yu)(yu)行(xing)为(wei)(wei)的(de)(de)(de)有(you)(you)效程度(du)[14]。

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第二章 相关概述与理论基础


2.1 考(kao)虑(lv)公众(zhong)参与的公共(gong)工程项目突发事件应急管(guan)理(li)概述

2.1.1 公共工程项(xiang)目概述与特征

(一)公共工(gong)程项目概念

要想对(dui)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)应急(ji)管理问(wen)题(ti)进行(xing)(xing)研(yan)究,就必须先界定(ding)和区分好公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)概念。现阶段关(guan)于公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)究较(jiao)多,但目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)前还(hai)尚未形成统(tong)一(yi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)概念。公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)大部分都(dou)是(shi)(shi)利(li)用(yong)(yong)国家(jia)财(cai)政(zheng)(zheng)资(zi)(zi)金(jin)来投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)兴建的(de)(de)(de)(de),叫法也(ye)是(shi)(shi)大同小异,一(yi)般都(dou)会(hui)(hui)(hui)称为(wei)(wei)(wei)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)或(huo)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)等(deng)[42]。鉴于此(ci),我(wo)国众(zhong)(zhong)多学(xue)(xue)者纷纷对(dui)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)概念进行(xing)(xing)了相应界定(ding)。黄(huang)恒学(xue)(xue)认为(wei)(wei)(wei)所谓(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu),主要是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)该类(lei)建设(she)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)在(zai)社会(hui)(hui)(hui)一(yi)定(ding)范(fan)围内具(ju)(ju)有(you)包容性,公(gong)(gong)(gong)益性或(huo)不具(ju)(ju)有(you)竞争性等(deng)特点(dian)[43];陈贇等(deng)人从地方层(ceng)面(mian)出发对(dui)地方公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)建设(she)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)进行(xing)(xing)定(ding)义(yi),认为(wei)(wei)(wei)其(qi)多是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)地方政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)进行(xing)(xing)出资(zi)(zi)兴建并且加以(yi)管辖的(de)(de)(de)(de),具(ju)(ju)有(you)外部性、社会(hui)(hui)(hui)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)性和福(fu)利(li)性等(deng)特质的(de)(de)(de)(de)基础设(she)施项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)[44];洪银兴等(deng)学(xue)(xue)者则认为(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)主要是(shi)(shi)指(zhi)那些由政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)(fu)投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)或(huo)者融(rong)资(zi)(zi),也(ye)或(huo)是(shi)(shi)利(li)用(yong)(yong)国外组织资(zi)(zi)金(jin)的(de)(de)(de)(de),并且涉及到(dao)社会(hui)(hui)(hui)公(gong)(gong)(gong)众(zhong)(zhong)切身利(li)益的(de)(de)(de)(de)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)设(she)施建设(she)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)[45];时现认为(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)即为(wei)(wei)(wei)国家(jia)投(tou)(tou)资(zi)(zi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)各类(lei)农业工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、公(gong)(gong)(gong)共(gong)(gong)交通工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)、水(shui)利(li)水(shui)电工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu)等(deng)建设(she)项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)(mu)(mu)(mu),其(qi)所有(you)权为(wei)(wei)(wei)国家(jia)所有(you),但为(wei)(wei)(wei)全(quan)社会(hui)(hui)(hui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)所有(you)公(gong)(gong)(gong)众(zhong)(zhong)一(yi)同享用(yong)(yong)[46]。

综合众(zhong)多学者对公(gong)(gong)共(gong)工(gong)程(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)定义(yi),我们可以看出虽(sui)然大家对公(gong)(gong)共(gong)工(gong)程(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)称谓不(bu)一致,定义(yi)的(de)陈述(shu)也不(bu)同,但其实质(zhi)内涵(han)却是(shi)一致的(de)。因为各定义(yi)都是(shi)从项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)资金来源以及(ji)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)工(gong)程(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)的(de)用途(tu)这两个(ge)角度来阐述(shu)和(he)(he)界定的(de),即公(gong)(gong)共(gong)工(gong)程(cheng)项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)为政府出资和(he)(he)决策(ce)的(de),代(dai)表社会广大人民利益(yi)和(he)(he)需要(yao)的(de)基础(chu)设施项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)和(he)(he)公(gong)(gong)共(gong)事业项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu),如市政、道路、电(dian)力(li)和(he)(he)通信等(deng)与群(qun)众(zhong)日常生活紧(jin)密关联的(de)建设项(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)。

表 4.1  相关参数与含义

表 4.1  相关参(can)数(shu)与含义

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2.2 公共工程项(xiang)目(mu)突发事件应(ying)急管理(li)理(li)论(lun)与方法

2.2.1 演化(hua)博弈理论(lun)

演(yan)(yan)化(hua)博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)理(li)(li)论(lun)(lun)作为博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)论(lun)(lun)演(yan)(yan)化(hua)出(chu)来的(de)(de)新领域,相较(jiao)于传(chuan)统的(de)(de)博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)论(lun)(lun),演(yan)(yan)化(hua)博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)理(li)(li)论(lun)(lun)更像是一(yi)种(zhong)生(sheng)命(ming)科(ke)学(xue)的(de)(de)理(li)(li)论(lun)(lun),其(qi)思想起源于生(sheng)物进(jin)化(hua)论(lun)(lun)以及(ji)遗传(chuan)基因理(li)(li)论(lun)(lun)[64],并(bing)于1973 年被史密(mi)斯正(zheng)式提出(chu)。次(ci)年,其(qi)联合(he)学(xue)者 Price 发表了一(yi)篇论(lun)(lun)文,介绍了关于演(yan)(yan)化(hua)稳定(ding)策(ce)略的(de)(de)相关概(gai)述[65]。此后,在(zai) 1978 年 Taylor 和 Jonker 经过研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)提出(chu)了复制者动(dong)态(tai)概(gai)念(nian),将演(yan)(yan)化(hua)博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)动(dong)态(tai)模型转(zhuan)化(hua)为方程,定(ding)量的(de)(de)分(fen)析演(yan)(yan)化(hua)博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)中的(de)(de)稳定(ding)策(ce)略[66]。在(zai)此之后,随(sui)着学(xue)者对(dui)演(yan)(yan)化(hua)博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)理(li)(li)论(lun)(lun)中这两种(zhong)概(gai)念(nian)研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)的(de)(de)不断(duan)深(shen)入,演(yan)(yan)化(hua)博(bo)(bo)(bo)(bo)弈(yi)(yi)(yi)理(li)(li)论(lun)(lun)深(shen)受学(xue)术界的(de)(de)关注,相关研(yan)(yan)究(jiu)和应用也取得了突破性进(jin)展。

相较(jiao)以(yi)往博弈理论,演化博弈理论不(bu)再认可(ke)完全(quan)理性,转为(wei)认可(ke)有理性假(jia)设(she)。在群体(ti)博弈过(guo)程中,各个主体(ti)通(tong)过(guo)模仿和学(xue)习(xi)他人,不(bu)断调整和改进自身(shen)的(de)(de)行为(wei)策略(lve),从而(er)实现有限条件(jian)下各博弈主体(ti)的(de)(de)最优策略(lve)。因此,这一理论的(de)(de)前(qian)提假(jia)设(she)更(geng)为(wei)合理,适(shi)用性更(geng)强,能够(gou)被(bei)广泛地(di)用于解决管理科学(xue)领域的(de)(de)众多难题。

然而(er)对于演(yan)化博弈(yi)(yi)过程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)析,一(yi)般用(yong)两(liang)种(zhong)方(fang)(fang)(fang)式(shi)(shi)来(lai)(lai)表征(zheng),即最优反(fan)应(ying)(ying)动(dong)态(tai)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)复(fu)制动(dong)态(tai)。前者(zhe)(zhe)主要是针对总体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)部分(fen)有(you)限理性(xing)的(de)(de)(de)小(xiao)群(qun)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)而(er)言的(de)(de)(de),这类群(qun)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)理性(xing)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度较高并(bing)且(qie)能(neng)够快(kuai)速完成学习。因(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci),最优反(fan)应(ying)(ying)动(dong)态(tai)突出的(de)(de)(de)是该类小(xiao)群(qun)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)能(neng)够根据(ju)前一(yi)次双(shuang)方(fang)(fang)(fang)博弈(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)结果快(kuai)速反(fan)应(ying)(ying),从而(er)进行(xing)(xing)自我策(ce)(ce)略(lve)的(de)(de)(de)动(dong)态(tai)调(diao)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)[67]。而(er)后者(zhe)(zhe)将所有(you)种(zhong)群(qun)都定(ding)义成一(yi)个(ge)大群(qun)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)[66],以(yi)此(ci)(ci)(ci)作为研(yan)究(jiu)的(de)(de)(de)对象。核心是在(zai)(zai)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)个(ge)群(qun)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),采取的(de)(de)(de)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)占优势的(de)(de)(de)个(ge)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)数(shu)量会(hui)增加,这时大群(qun)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)采取的(de)(de)(de)各(ge)种(zhong)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)的(de)(de)(de)比例会(hui)依据(ju)复(fu)制动(dong)态(tai)进行(xing)(xing)相(xiang)(xiang)应(ying)(ying)的(de)(de)(de)调(diao)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)和改变,一(yi)般是用(yong)一(yi)种(zhong)微(wei)分(fen)方(fang)(fang)(fang)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)的(de)(de)(de)形(xing)式(shi)(shi)来(lai)(lai)表征(zheng)这种(zhong)变化[67]。学者(zhe)(zhe) Cressman 通过研(yan)究(jiu)发(fa)现通过复(fu)制动(dong)态(tai)方(fang)(fang)(fang)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)探(tan)求博弈(yi)(yi)模(mo)型的(de)(de)(de)演(yan)化稳(wen)定(ding)策(ce)(ce)略(lve)更(geng)加精(jing)确,因(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci)被选(xuan)择为演(yan)化博弈(yi)(yi)理论中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最常用(yong)的(de)(de)(de)动(dong)态(tai)选(xuan)择模(mo)型[68]。由于公(gong)(gong)共工程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)项(xiang)目应(ying)(ying)急管理中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央政府、地方(fang)(fang)(fang)政府以(yi)及(ji)(ji)公(gong)(gong)众都属于大群(qun)体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)的(de)(de)(de)范畴,并(bing)且(qie)三者(zhe)(zhe)之(zhi)间存在(zai)(zai)博弈(yi)(yi)的(de)(de)(de)关系。所以(yi)三者(zhe)(zhe)不可能(neng)独(du)立存在(zai)(zai),需要相(xiang)(xiang)互影响,不断调(diao)整(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)(zheng)自己的(de)(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)为策(ce)(ce)略(lve),寻求到一(yi)个(ge)稳(wen)定(ding)均衡点。因(yin)此(ci)(ci)(ci),运(yun)用(yong)复(fu)制动(dong)态(tai)方(fang)(fang)(fang)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)去(qu)探(tan)究(jiu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)央政府、地方(fang)(fang)(fang)政府以(yi)及(ji)(ji)公(gong)(gong)众三方(fang)(fang)(fang)主体(ti)(ti)(ti)(ti)之(zhi)间的(de)(de)(de)博弈(yi)(yi)过程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)是一(yi)个(ge)非常好的(de)(de)(de)应(ying)(ying)用(yong)。

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第四章 公共工程项目突发事件应急管理演化

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